As you all know I am of the opinion that the majority of the games in the NFL are fixed and so it is from that stand-point I approach how these games should be analyzed. It is not about what the teams are capable of doing to each other but rather what the outcome of a particular game would mean financially to the Casinos & the Sportsbooks. It is not that we should completely dismiss stats and skill level when determining how teams match up with one another but those factors should not comprise our sole motivation behind which teams we choose to select from week to week. Such thinking will lead to disasterous results as for the bettor and a huge profit for the House which of course is by design....
Now given that I believe the games are fixed so that the house always wins, my approach is centered on the agenda of the Casino's and the Sportsbooks, which naturally is to make as much money as they can. And of course this happens when the percentage of money on a game is lop sided, and the opposing team ends up covering as a dog or favourite. This is the ideal situation a sportsbook loves to have for every single game on a Sunday. This is why the Sportsbook Directors will pop up on radio shows from time to time saying things like "Well today we're gonna need Cleveland against San Diego"...and that is precisely what they get...
Cleveland @ San Diego (-13.5) - week 9
Result - Cleveland 25 @ San Diego 32
** The Sportsbook wants games where the percentage is completely lop-sided so that if the opposing team were to cover or win, they would make a huge profit.
Now obviously this cannot happen from week to week. Much to the chagrin of the Casinos, such situations cannot occur because the perception the public has of certain teams can be very similar. Two teams that both have loosing or winning records will obviously generate divided action and thus less lop-sided percentages for that game...This is not the ideal situation a sportsbook likes to see because it means the profits from such a game will not be 70-30 in their favour but rather 55-45...
**The Sportsbooks absolutely hate to see games where the percentage of action the game receives is evenly divided or only slightly lop-sided because the profits of that game will not be as large as games where the public backed team looses....
Now because the perception the public has of certain teams changes from week to week depending on what happens the previous week, the amount of action certain teams receive the following week also changes. This in turn has a tremendous effect on the final percentages each game receives by kick off time. Mind you most of the public do not consider the possibility that certain games could be fixed so if team A beat team B in week 9 in a fixed match up, the public really believes that team A is the better team and will favour this team the following week against
team C....
The public never suspects that the Sportsbooks want them to see certain teams in a good light and certain teams in a bad light because then this false perception the public has ensures that certain games will receive a lop-sided percentage of action toward one team...the end result being the opposing team covering or winning outright ie the House wins....
Dallas 35 @ Carolina 14 - Week 8
Dallas 19 @ Washington - Week 9
In week 8, Carolina would have had the higher percentage of action, giving the House the lions share of the action. In week 9, Dallas had the higher percentage, again giving the House the lions share of the action. What is important to remember is that in each game, the House got what they always want and that is lop sided action on a public backed team...Mind you Carolina & Dallas are likely viewed as similar by the public because they are both teams who most would consider competetive...
**Given that the Sportsbooks ideal situation is a game with LOP-SIDED ACTION toward one particualar team, you will often find that if they dont have that kind of action one week the outcome of that particular game will garner such action the following week
After Dallas beat the Panthers on the road, the media made quite a spectacle of it. The experts applauded Parcellas for his decision to bench Bledsoe. And the entire week was spent talking about how Dallas and T.O had "turned it around"...The focus was squarely on Dallas and the Skins who were loosers of 3 in a row were entirely ignored...All of these factors served to push the percentage toward Dallas...which is exactly what the House wanted. This scenario works in reverse for favourites as well...
Minnesota 31 @ Seattle 13 - Week 7
Seattle 28 @ Kansas City 35 - Week 8
Oakland 0 @ Seattle 16 - Week 9
Who received the higher percentage in those losses Seattle suffered in Week 7 & 8? Seattle. We have to remember like Pittsburgh, Seattle is a Superbowl team. Superbowl teams regardless of performance seem to always garner high percentages of action and this is music to the Sportsbooks ears because week after week the public will lay points with these kinds of teams and week after week the House will take that money straight to the bank...We have to remember that the idea situation for the Casino & the Sportsbooks is Lop Sided action on any particular team and with Superbowl teams like Seattle & Pittsburgh, this is possible. The scam the Syndicate has been running with Pittsburgh has been quite profitable. It is only when popular dogs like Oakland who came off back to back wins...start to even out the percentages...as was the case in last week loss to Seattle, do we see favourites like Seattle win....
**When popular dogs come face to face with public teams like Seattle, the percentages start to even out and it is at this point when the percentages are no longer lop sided we see favourites like Seattle start to win and cover. Favourites tend to cover when the percentages are not so Lop Sided......
As I have said before, because I am of the opinion that the games are rigged, I am not so much concerned with who is better than who but rather how does the House benefit financially...in the short term and in the long run. Some of the games this weekend are not games which will feature lop sided action toward one side. Some of these games in fact will feature what I like to call Even Keel Action toward both teams. These are the kinds of games the Sportsbooks hate because the outcome will not garner them 70-30 money...However rest assure that the outcome of this kind of game will likely result in Lop Sided Action in the game featuring those teams the following week. This way the Casinos recoup the money they may have lost to the sharps who took the Unpopular Ffavourite the week before, when the public gets robbed by laying money with the team who received the Lop Sided Action
**Lop Sided Action - Games where certain teams receive the larger portion of money put down on a game. These games usually result in the Unpopular Dog covering....
Week 9
San Francisco + 5
Miami + 14.5
Washington + 3.5
Houston + 13.5
Detroit + 5 / + 4
** Even Keel Action - Games where certain teams receive somewhat of a more balanced amount of money put down on the game. Quite often the favourite may end up receiving a higher percentage by kick off time but the final percentages may look something like 59-41 which is far less Lop Sided than the numbers you would saw in the Chicago/Miami game of Week 9.
Week 9
Jacksonville -9.5
Baltimore - 3.5
Buffalo - 3.0
New Orleans - 1
Week 10 Selections & Analysis to Follow....
Now given that I believe the games are fixed so that the house always wins, my approach is centered on the agenda of the Casino's and the Sportsbooks, which naturally is to make as much money as they can. And of course this happens when the percentage of money on a game is lop sided, and the opposing team ends up covering as a dog or favourite. This is the ideal situation a sportsbook loves to have for every single game on a Sunday. This is why the Sportsbook Directors will pop up on radio shows from time to time saying things like "Well today we're gonna need Cleveland against San Diego"...and that is precisely what they get...
Cleveland @ San Diego (-13.5) - week 9
Result - Cleveland 25 @ San Diego 32
** The Sportsbook wants games where the percentage is completely lop-sided so that if the opposing team were to cover or win, they would make a huge profit.
Now obviously this cannot happen from week to week. Much to the chagrin of the Casinos, such situations cannot occur because the perception the public has of certain teams can be very similar. Two teams that both have loosing or winning records will obviously generate divided action and thus less lop-sided percentages for that game...This is not the ideal situation a sportsbook likes to see because it means the profits from such a game will not be 70-30 in their favour but rather 55-45...
**The Sportsbooks absolutely hate to see games where the percentage of action the game receives is evenly divided or only slightly lop-sided because the profits of that game will not be as large as games where the public backed team looses....
Now because the perception the public has of certain teams changes from week to week depending on what happens the previous week, the amount of action certain teams receive the following week also changes. This in turn has a tremendous effect on the final percentages each game receives by kick off time. Mind you most of the public do not consider the possibility that certain games could be fixed so if team A beat team B in week 9 in a fixed match up, the public really believes that team A is the better team and will favour this team the following week against
team C....
The public never suspects that the Sportsbooks want them to see certain teams in a good light and certain teams in a bad light because then this false perception the public has ensures that certain games will receive a lop-sided percentage of action toward one team...the end result being the opposing team covering or winning outright ie the House wins....
Dallas 35 @ Carolina 14 - Week 8
Dallas 19 @ Washington - Week 9
In week 8, Carolina would have had the higher percentage of action, giving the House the lions share of the action. In week 9, Dallas had the higher percentage, again giving the House the lions share of the action. What is important to remember is that in each game, the House got what they always want and that is lop sided action on a public backed team...Mind you Carolina & Dallas are likely viewed as similar by the public because they are both teams who most would consider competetive...
**Given that the Sportsbooks ideal situation is a game with LOP-SIDED ACTION toward one particualar team, you will often find that if they dont have that kind of action one week the outcome of that particular game will garner such action the following week
After Dallas beat the Panthers on the road, the media made quite a spectacle of it. The experts applauded Parcellas for his decision to bench Bledsoe. And the entire week was spent talking about how Dallas and T.O had "turned it around"...The focus was squarely on Dallas and the Skins who were loosers of 3 in a row were entirely ignored...All of these factors served to push the percentage toward Dallas...which is exactly what the House wanted. This scenario works in reverse for favourites as well...
Minnesota 31 @ Seattle 13 - Week 7
Seattle 28 @ Kansas City 35 - Week 8
Oakland 0 @ Seattle 16 - Week 9
Who received the higher percentage in those losses Seattle suffered in Week 7 & 8? Seattle. We have to remember like Pittsburgh, Seattle is a Superbowl team. Superbowl teams regardless of performance seem to always garner high percentages of action and this is music to the Sportsbooks ears because week after week the public will lay points with these kinds of teams and week after week the House will take that money straight to the bank...We have to remember that the idea situation for the Casino & the Sportsbooks is Lop Sided action on any particular team and with Superbowl teams like Seattle & Pittsburgh, this is possible. The scam the Syndicate has been running with Pittsburgh has been quite profitable. It is only when popular dogs like Oakland who came off back to back wins...start to even out the percentages...as was the case in last week loss to Seattle, do we see favourites like Seattle win....
**When popular dogs come face to face with public teams like Seattle, the percentages start to even out and it is at this point when the percentages are no longer lop sided we see favourites like Seattle start to win and cover. Favourites tend to cover when the percentages are not so Lop Sided......
As I have said before, because I am of the opinion that the games are rigged, I am not so much concerned with who is better than who but rather how does the House benefit financially...in the short term and in the long run. Some of the games this weekend are not games which will feature lop sided action toward one side. Some of these games in fact will feature what I like to call Even Keel Action toward both teams. These are the kinds of games the Sportsbooks hate because the outcome will not garner them 70-30 money...However rest assure that the outcome of this kind of game will likely result in Lop Sided Action in the game featuring those teams the following week. This way the Casinos recoup the money they may have lost to the sharps who took the Unpopular Ffavourite the week before, when the public gets robbed by laying money with the team who received the Lop Sided Action
**Lop Sided Action - Games where certain teams receive the larger portion of money put down on a game. These games usually result in the Unpopular Dog covering....
Week 9
San Francisco + 5
Miami + 14.5
Washington + 3.5
Houston + 13.5
Detroit + 5 / + 4
** Even Keel Action - Games where certain teams receive somewhat of a more balanced amount of money put down on the game. Quite often the favourite may end up receiving a higher percentage by kick off time but the final percentages may look something like 59-41 which is far less Lop Sided than the numbers you would saw in the Chicago/Miami game of Week 9.
Week 9
Jacksonville -9.5
Baltimore - 3.5
Buffalo - 3.0
New Orleans - 1
Week 10 Selections & Analysis to Follow....
